The 30.5% Illusion: Why Polymarket’s Iran-War Odds Are the Real Trade
Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
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Polymarket says there’s a 30.5% chance of US-Iran nuclear agreement by 2026....
Fear
Market Sentiment
Block reward halving event
92 million ARB released
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
Team and early investor shares released
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
Bitcoin Season